Ruth Chang: How to Make Hard Choices
Ruth Chang is a philosopher at Rutgers University with an interesting background. After graduating with a J.D. from Harvard Law School and dipping her toe into the legal world, she went off to Oxford …
Decision Making
Five Simple Notions that Solve Problems
In 1996, Charlie Munger gave a talk titled Practical Thought about Practical Thought, where he explained the success of Coca-Cola using the simplest, most fundamental mental models he could find. …
The Art of Winning An Argument
We spend a lot of our lives trying to convince or persuade others to our point of view. This is one of the reasons that Daniel Pink says that we’re all in sales: Some of you, no doubt, are …
Miracles Happen — The Simple Heuristic That Saved 150 Lives
“In an uncertain world, statistical thinking and risk communication alone are not sufficient. Good rules of thumb are essential for good decisions.” *** Three minutes after taking off from …
Certainty Is an Illusion
We all try to avoid uncertainty, even if it means being wrong. We take comfort in certainty, and we demand it of others, even when we know it’s impossible. Gerd Gigerenzer argues in Risk Savvy: …
Work in Pulses
We’re not designed for multitasking and we’re certainly not designed to work continuously without a break. We’re designed to pulse, that is alternate between expending energy and …
The Hard Thing About Hard Things
The problem with most business books is they present a formula for problems that ultimately have no formula. You’re reading something with no practical value and you’re not really learning …
The Ability To Focus And Make The Best Move When There Are No Good Moves
“The indeterminate future is somehow one in which probability and statistics are the dominant modalities for making sense of the world.” *** Decisions, where outcomes (and therefore …
Sensemaking as a Complement to Default Thinking
Most of the time we devise strategies in the default mode of problem-solving, prioritizing maximum growth and profit through rational and logical analysis. But we already know that rational and …
Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error
“It infuriates me to be wrong when I know I’m right.” — Molière *** “Why is it so fun to be right?” That’s the opening line from Kathryn Schulz’ excellent book …
Decision Journal: Template and Example Included
One of the strangest things about being human is that we can’t trust our own memories of what we were thinking. Not because we forget but rather because our brains actively edit the past to make …
Slow Down and Think
Sebastian Garcia made a mistake, but he couldn’t figure it out. At the 2011 National Junior High Chess Championship, he was looking strong and heading towards a victory. Then he made a mistake, …
Quiet: Why Introverts Have a Creative Advantage
In Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can’t Stop Talking, Susan Cain looks at how our lives are shaped by personality. The book explores how where we land on the introvert-extrovert …
Daniel Kahneman’s Favorite Approach For Making Better Decisions
Picture this: You’re six months into your company’s ambitious expansion, and what seemed like a sure bet has turned into a nightmare. The market wasn’t just ok—it was poor. You made …
What the Most Successful People Do Before Breakfast
One of the big differences between the most successful people we’ve met and others is how they use their morning. Used well, the time before breakfast dramatically increases your productivity. …
Retrograde Analysis: Working Backward to Solve Problems
We’ve talked a lot about inversion — solving problems backwards. In this short video, grandmaster Maurice Ashley walks us through retrograde analysis, which is a method to solve game positions …