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Mental Models

Tit For Tat

Tit for tat is a strategy which, according to game theory, is the most effective choice for iterated games based on mutual cooperation or defection. Both players benefit if they cooperate, but one benefits and the other loses out if only …

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Reciprocity: Getting What You Give

This article is an excerpt from the bestselling book The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology Reciprocity teaches us why win-win relationships are the way to go, why waiters leave candies with the bill, why it’s a …

Read moreReciprocity: Getting What You Give

A Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think

Most people travel as an observer, and as a result, “see” a lot. When you travel as an active participant, the experience can transform the way you think, and how you see the world. *** Here’s a situation familiar to many of us: We decide …

Read moreA Wandering Mind: How Travel Can Change the Way You Think

5 Mental Models to Remove (Some of) the Confusion from Parenting

We often talk about mental models in the context of business, investing, and careers. But mental models can also help with other areas, like parenting. Here are 5 principle-based models you can apply to any family, any situation, and any …

Read more5 Mental Models to Remove (Some of) the Confusion from Parenting

Predicting the Future with Bayes’ Theorem

In episode #37 of The Knowledge Project, we talked with professional poker player Annie Duke about thinking in probabilities, something good poker players do all the time. At the poker table or in life, it’s useful to think in probabilities …

Read morePredicting the Future with Bayes’ Theorem

Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems

Thought experiments are a classic tool used by many great thinkers. They enable us to explore impossible situations and predict their implications and outcomes. Mastering thought experiments can help you confront difficult questions and …

Read moreThought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problems

The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

The OODA Loop is a four-step process for making effective decisions in high-stakes situations. It involves collecting relevant information, recognizing potential biases, deciding, and acting, then repeating the process with new information. …

Read moreThe OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

Our Favorite Farnam Street Posts From 2020

At the end of each year, the FS team takes time to reflect on the work we did and what we learned from it. Here’s a selection of our favorite articles from 2020 – and why we think they’re worth a second read. Much of what we do at FS …

Read moreOur Favorite Farnam Street Posts From 2020

Mental Models for Career Changes

Career changes are some of the biggest moves we will ever make, but they don’t have to be daunting. Using mental models to make decisions we determine where we want to go and how to get there. The result is a change that aligns with the …

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How Julia Child Used First Principles Thinking

There’s a big difference between knowing how to follow a recipe and knowing how to cook. If you can master the first principles within a domain, you can see much further than those who are just following recipes. That’s what Julia Child, …

Read moreHow Julia Child Used First Principles Thinking

Descriptions Aren’t Prescriptions

When we look at a representation of reality, we can choose to either see it as descriptive, meaning it tells us what the world is currently like, or as prescriptive, meaning it tells us how the world should be. Descriptions teach us, but …

Read moreDescriptions Aren’t Prescriptions

What Sharks Can Teach Us About Survivorship Bias

Survivorship bias refers to the idea that we get a false representation of reality when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who live to tell their story. Taking a look at how we misrepresent shark attacks highlights …

Read moreWhat Sharks Can Teach Us About Survivorship Bias

Mental Models For a Pandemic

Mental models help us understand the world better, something which is especially valuable during times of confusion, like a pandemic. Here’s how to apply mental models to gain a more accurate picture of reality and keep a cool head. *** It …

Read moreMental Models For a Pandemic

Using Models to Stay Calm in Charged Situations

When polarizing topics are discussed in meetings, passions can run high and cloud our judgment. Learn how mental models can help you see clearly from this real-life scenario. *** Mental models can sometimes come off as an abstract concept. …

Read moreUsing Models to Stay Calm in Charged Situations

Prisoner’s Dilemma: What Game Are you Playing?

In this classic game theory experiment, you must decide: rat out another for personal benefit, or cooperate? The answer may be more complicated than you think. *** What does it take to make people cooperate with each other when the …

Read morePrisoner’s Dilemma: What Game Are you Playing?

Survivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures

Survivorship bias is a common logical error that distorts our understanding of the world. It happens when we assume that success tells the whole story and when we don’t adequately consider past failures. There are thousands, even tens of …

Read moreSurvivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures

Illusion of Transparency: Your Poker Face is Better Than You Think

We tend to think that people can easily tell what we’re thinking and feeling. They can’t. Understanding the illusion of transparency bias can improve relationships, job performance, and more. *** “A wonderful fact to reflect upon, that …

Read moreIllusion of Transparency: Your Poker Face is Better Than You Think

How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut

Occam’s razor is one of the most useful, (yet misunderstood,) models in your mental toolbox to solve problems more quickly and efficiently. Here’s how to use it. *** Occam’s razor (also known as the “law of parsimony”) is a problem-solving …

Read moreHow to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut

Resonance: How to Open Doors For Other People

It’s only polite. Hold the door open for others, and they will open doors for you. We are far more interdependent than we would like to admit. We biologically need to connect. “Limbic resonance” is a term used by Thomas Lewis, Fari Amini, …

Read moreResonance: How to Open Doors For Other People

Entropy: The Hidden Force That Complicates Life

Entropy, a measure of disorder, explains why life seems to get more, not less, complicated as time goes on. *** All things trend toward disorder. More specifically, the second law of thermodynamics states that “as one goes forward in time, …

Read moreEntropy: The Hidden Force That Complicates Life

The Surprising Power of The Long Game

In a world where most people play the short game, playing the long game offers a huge advantage. There is an old saying that I think of often, passed to me by my friend Peter Kaufman, “If you do what everyone else is doing, you …

Read moreThe Surprising Power of The Long Game

Winner Takes it All: How Markets Favor the Few at the Expense of the Many

Markets tend to favor unequal distributions of market share and profits, with a few leaders emerging in any industry. Winner-take-all markets are hard to disrupt and suppress the entry of new players by locking in market share for leading …

Read moreWinner Takes it All: How Markets Favor the Few at the Expense of the Many

The Disproportional Power of Anecdotes

Anecdotes tend to not be statistically significant, but their added emotional significance leads us to place additional weight on them. *** Humans, it seems, have an innate tendency to overgeneralize from small samples. How many times have …

Read moreThe Disproportional Power of Anecdotes

Deductive vs Inductive Reasoning: Make Smarter Arguments, Better Decisions, and Stronger Conclusions

You can’t prove truth, but using deductive and inductive reasoning, you can get close. Learn the difference between the two types of reasoning and how to use them when evaluating facts and arguments. In this article we’ll cover: What …

Read moreDeductive vs Inductive Reasoning: Make Smarter Arguments, Better Decisions, and Stronger Conclusions
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