Professor and New York Times best-selling author Philip Tetlock (@PTetlock) explains the art and science of predicting the future.
Tetlock is the co-leader of The Good Judgement Project, which is a multi-year forecasting study. He also wrote the New York Times best-selling book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Here are a few highlights from our conversation:
- What traits and characteristics make one person a more accurate forecaster than another
- The 15 minute exercise that radically improves the average forecaster’s accuracy
- How Philip’s mantra, “Start with the outside and work inside” can prevent you from making incorrect assumptions when making an important decision
- How we can foster open-mindedness in ourselves and other people in our organizations
- What the “Fermi method” is and how it can help flush out your ignorance when wrestling with a problem/li>
- How much of prediction is a learnable skill, and how much is just dumb luck
- How organizations can use Philip’s research to create a culture of creative problem solving (even if it means mistakes are more visible to others)
And much more.
If making better decisions is something that’s important to you (and I hope it is), make sure you don’t miss this episode.