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The Knowledge Project Podcast

Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future [The Knowledge Project Ep. #6]

Professor and New York Times best-selling author Philip Tetlock (@PTetlock) explains the art and science of predicting the future.

Now available on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Transcript

Tetlock is the co-leader of The Good Judgement Project, which is a multi-year forecasting study. He also wrote the New York Times best-selling book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Here are a few highlights from our conversation:

  • What traits and characteristics make one person a more accurate forecaster than another
  • The 15 minute exercise that radically improves the average forecaster’s accuracy
  • How Philip’s mantra, “Start with the outside and work inside” can prevent you from making incorrect assumptions when making an important decision
  • How we can foster open-mindedness in ourselves and other people in our organizations
  • What the “Fermi method” is and how it can help flush out your ignorance when wrestling with a problem/li>
  • How much of prediction is a learnable skill, and how much is just dumb luck
  • How organizations can use Philip’s research to create a culture of creative problem solving (even if it means mistakes are more visible to others)

And much more.

If making better decisions is something that’s important to you (and I hope it is), make sure you don’t miss this episode.

Books Mentioned

  • Perception and Misperception in International Politics
  • The Wisdom of Crowds
  • Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking
  • Think!: Why Crucial Decisions Can’t Be Made in the Blink of an Eye

Transcript

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The Knowledget Product podcast cover

The Knowledge Project

A podcast about mastering the best of what other people have already figured out. The Knowledge Project focuses on insights and lessons that never expire. You’ll walk away from every episode with actionable insights that help you get better results and live a more meaningful life.

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