• Skip to main content
  • Skip to header right navigation
  • Skip to site footer
Farnam Street Logo

Farnam Street

Mastering the best of what other people have already figured out

  • Newsletter
  • Books
  • Podcast
  • Articles
  • Log In
  • Become a Member

Mental Models

Iatrogenics: Why Intervention Often Leads to Worse Outcomes

Iatrogenics is when a treatment causes more harm than benefit. As iatros means healer in Greek, the word means “caused by the healer” or “brought by the healer.”  Healer, in this sense, need not mean a doctor, but …

Read moreIatrogenics: Why Intervention Often Leads to Worse Outcomes

Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity

Charlie Munger, the business partner of Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is famous for his quote “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” That thinking was …

Read moreInversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidity

Mental Model: Bias from Insensitivity to Sample Size

The widespread misunderstanding of randomness causes a lot of problems. Today we’re going to explore a concept that causes a lot of human misjudgment. It’s called the bias from insensitivity to sample size, or, if you prefer,the law …

Read moreMental Model: Bias from Insensitivity to Sample Size

Mental Model: Equilibrium

There are many ways in which you can visualize the concept of equilibrium, but one of the simplest comes from Boombustology where a ball sits on a simple curved shape. A situation in which equilibrium is possible is one in which over time, …

Read moreMental Model: Equilibrium

Insensitivity To Base Rates: An Introduction

In statistics, a base rate refers to the percentage of a population (e.g. grasshoppers, people who live in New York, newborn babies) which have a characteristic. Given a random individual and no additional information, the base rate tells …

Read moreInsensitivity To Base Rates: An Introduction

Mental Model: Game Theory

From Game Theory, by Morton Davis: The theory of games is a theory of decision making. It considers how one should make decisions and to a lesser extent, how one does make them. You make a number of decisions every day. Some involve deep …

Read moreMental Model: Game Theory

The Red Queen Effect: Avoid Running Faster to Stay in the Same Place

Charles Lutwidge Dodgson (1832-1898), better known by his pseudonym Lewis Carroll, was not only an author but a keen observer of human nature. His most famous works are Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland and its sequel Through the …

Read moreThe Red Queen Effect: Avoid Running Faster to Stay in the Same Place

Why Do People Choke When the Stakes Are High?

Loss Aversion. In sports, on a game show, or just on the job, what causes people to choke when the stakes are high? A new study by researchers at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) suggests that when there are high financial …

Read moreWhy Do People Choke When the Stakes Are High?

Former Canadian Prime Minister Mackenzie King on The Law of Competing Standards

I came across that passage while reading “Industry and Humanity,” by former Canadian Prime Minister Mackenzie King. We’ll add this to our previous knowledge on Gresham’s Law. In the reign of Queen Elizabeth, an …

Read moreFormer Canadian Prime Minister Mackenzie King on The Law of Competing Standards

Mental Model: Prisoners’ Dilemma

The prisoners’ dilemma is the best known strategy game in social science. The game shows why two entities might not cooperate even when it appears in their best (rational) interest to do so. What is rational for the individual in …

Read moreMental Model: Prisoners’ Dilemma

Mental Model: Conjunctive and Disjunctive Events Bias

Welcome to the conjunctive and disjunctive events bias. Why are we so optimistic in our estimation of a projects cost and schedule? Why are we so surprised when something inevitably goes wrong? Because of the human tendency to underestimate …

Read moreMental Model: Conjunctive and Disjunctive Events Bias

Mental Model: Feedback Loops

Feedback loops are created when reactions affect themselves and can be positive or negative. Consider a thermostat regulating room temperature. This is an example of a negative feedback loop. As the temperature rises, the thermostat turns …

Read moreMental Model: Feedback Loops

What is a Black Swan?

Black swans are the unexpected outliers, the rare and unpredictable events that defy our usual expectations and profoundly impact our world. They are the surprises that no one sees coming, the game-changers that reshape the landscape of the …

Read moreWhat is a Black Swan?

Kantian Fairness Tendency: The World Isn’t Fair

The Kantian Fairness Tendency refers to the pursuit of perfect fairness which causes a lot of terrible problems. Stop expecting the world to be fair and adjust your behavior accordingly. To learn about this mental model we turn to Charlie …

Read moreKantian Fairness Tendency: The World Isn’t Fair

The Tragedy Of The Commons

What is common to many is taken least care of, for all men have greater regard for what is their own than for what they possess in common with others. — Aristotle The rules pay you to do the wrong thing. — Garrett Hardin The Tragedy of the …

Read moreThe Tragedy Of The Commons

3 Things Everyone Should Know About the Availability Heuristic

There are 3 things you should know about the availability heuristic: We often misjudge the frequency and magnitude of events that have happened recently. This happens, in part, because of the limitations on memory. We remember things better …

Read more3 Things Everyone Should Know About the Availability Heuristic

An Introduction to the Mental Model of Redundancy (with examples)

“The reliability that matters is not the simple reliability of one component of a system, but the final reliability of the total control system.” — Garrett Hardin *** We learn from Engineering that critical systems often require …

Read moreAn Introduction to the Mental Model of Redundancy (with examples)

Giffen Goods: Raising prices and increasing consumption

Other things being equal when the price of a good rises, the quantity demanded should fall. Economics refer to this as the law of demand. Because there are many counter-examples to this law it’s more of a quick rule of thumb. Giffen …

Read moreGiffen Goods: Raising prices and increasing consumption

Gresham’s Law: Why Bad Drives Out Good As Time Passes

Whenever coins containing precious metals have been used along with base metal coins of the same denomination, both legally accepted as tender, the bad coins have driven the good coins out of circulation. Gresham’s Law is named after …

Read moreGresham’s Law: Why Bad Drives Out Good As Time Passes

The Murder of Kitty Genovese and The Bystander Effect

Catherine “Kitty” Genovese, a New York City woman who was stabbed to death near her home in the Kew Gardens section of Queens, New York on March 13, 1964. Genovese was buried in a family grave at Lakeview Cemetery in New Canaan, …

Read moreThe Murder of Kitty Genovese and The Bystander Effect

Social Proof: Why We Look to Others For What We Should Think and Do

“Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.” — Walter Lippmann “The five most dangerous words in business are: ‘Everybody else is doing it.'” — Warren Buffett *** The Basics Consider a university freshman, …

Read moreSocial Proof: Why We Look to Others For What We Should Think and Do

Mental Model: Anchoring

We often pay attention to irrelevant information when making decisions. One way this can play out is in the form of ‘anchoring.’ When we make an estimate, we can end up using irrelevant information as our ‘anchor.’ We then adjust from …

Read moreMental Model: Anchoring

The Principles of Comparative Advantage: Why Tiger Woods Shouldn’t Mow Your Lawn

In economics, comparative advantage refers to the ability of a person or nation to produce a good or service at a lower opportunity cost than another person (or nation). This is why trade can create value for both parties—because each …

Read moreThe Principles of Comparative Advantage: Why Tiger Woods Shouldn’t Mow Your Lawn

Hindsight Bias: Why You’re Not As Smart As You Think You Are

Hindsight bias occurs when we look backward in time and see events are more predictable than they were at the time a decision was made. This bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along effect,” typically involves those annoying …

Read moreHindsight Bias: Why You’re Not As Smart As You Think You Are
← See newer articles
See older articles →

Discover What You’re Missing

Get the weekly email full of actionable ideas and insights you can use at work and home.


As seen on:

New York Times logo
Wall Street Journal logo
The Economist logo
Financial Times logo
Farnam Street Logo

© 2025 Farnam Street Media Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Proudly powered by WordPress. Hosted by Pressable. See our Privacy Policy.

  • About
  • Sponsorship
  • Support
  • Speaking

We’re Syrus Partners.
We buy amazing businesses.


Farnam Street participates in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising commissions by linking to Amazon.