Predicting the Future with Bayes’ Theorem
In episode #37 of The Knowledge Project, we talked with professional poker player Annie Duke about thinking in probabilities, something good poker players do all the time. At the poker table or in …
Statistics
The Best-Case Outcomes Are Statistical Outliers
There’s nothing wrong with hoping for the best. But the best-case scenario is rarely the one that comes to pass. Being realistic about what is likely to happen positions you for a range of possible …
Common Probability Errors to Avoid
If you’re trying to gain a rapid understanding of a new area, one of the most important things you can do is to identify common mistakes people make, then avoid them. Here are some of the most …
What Sharks Can Teach Us About Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias refers to the idea that we get a false representation of reality when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who live to tell their story. Taking a look at how we …
What’s So Significant About Significance?
One of my favorite studies of all time took the 50 most common ingredients from a cookbook and searched the literature for a connection to cancer: 72% had a study linking them to increased or …
Leonard Mlodinow: The Three Laws of Probability
“These three laws, simple as they are, form much of the basis of probability theory. Properly applied, they can give us much insight into the workings of nature and the everyday world.” …
Mental Model: Bias from Insensitivity to Sample Size
The widespread misunderstanding of randomness causes a lot of problems. Today we’re going to explore a concept that causes a lot of human misjudgment. It’s called the bias from insensitivity to …
Nassim Taleb: The Big Errors of Big Data
“I am not saying here that there is no information in big data. There is plenty of information. The problem — the central issue — is that the needle comes in an increasingly larger haystack.” *** …