The Art and Science of High-Stakes Decisions
How can anyone make rational decisions in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often unattainable? Some decisions are more difficult than others. Yet we’re often …
Availability Bias
James March: The Ambiguities of Experience
How do our experiences help us learn? We’re often told that experience is the best way to learn. We might see this play out when someone gives us advice which we ignore, until experience teaches us …
Choice Under Uncertainty
We use heuristics – rules of thumb – to make judgments. These can lead to certain predictable biases. These can lead to certain predictable biases. For instance, we classify situations …
Lessons of the Past
The tendency to relate contemporary events to earlier events as a guide to understanding is a powerful one. The difficulty, of course, is in being certain that two situations are truly comparable. …
Hindsight Bias: Why You’re Not As Smart As You Think You Are
Hindsight bias occurs when we look backward in time and see events are more predictable than they were at the time a decision was made. This bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along …