Here are some reasons that otherwise intelligent people stumble when making decisions.
Unintentional Stupidity
There are situations where our judgment is impaired, even if we don’t realize it:
- Fatigue: Your brain on no sleep is like a drunk.
- Goal fixation: You’re so focused on being right or the goal that you drive off the cliff.
- Emotional states: Strong feelings distort reality.
- Rushing: Haste makes waste, as the saying goes.
- Distraction: A wandering mind can’t find good ideas.
- Group influence: Consensus is often wrong.
- Unfamiliar environments: Operating in an unfamiliar environment increases the odds of error.
- Substances: Even mild stimulants can skew your thinking.
Would you believe that Yo-Yo Ma, the best Chello player in the world, left his Chello in a taxi in NYC on the way to an event where he was playing? He did. Why? A combination of goal fixation, being in a hurry, and operating in a new environment.
You can’t avoid these entirely, but you can learn to recognize them. When you do, pause, take a breath, and maybe ask someone else what they think. It’s like a mental seat belt: it won’t prevent all accidents, but it can make them less severe.
Faulty Information
Bad data in, bad decisions out. The best defense is to make the invisible visible and write down your reasoning. It’s harder to fool yourself on paper. Share it with others. They might spot errors you missed.
Wrong Models
Mental models concentrate the world into understandable and useable chunks. The right models illuminate key information while ignoring irrelevant details. The wrong ones do the opposite.
Consider how we think about diet and exercise. Many people use a simple “calories in, calories out” model. This can be limited because it ignores crucial factors like nutrient quality, insulin effects of zero-calorie food, and metabolism. Someone religiously counting calories might be frustrated by lack of progress, while overlooking the importance of sleep or stress management in their health journey.
The quality of our mental models determines the quality of our thinking. Novices often use models that experts know are incomplete or irrelevant. And in rapidly changing fields, even experts can find their models outdated. The trick is to constantly question and refine your models. Are they still serving you well? Or are they oversimplifying a complex reality?
Remember: all models are wrong, but some are useful.
We fail to Learn
Some people have twenty years of experience. Others have one year of experience, repeated twenty times. The difference? Reflection. Take time to think about what worked, what didn’t, and why.
Optics Over Outcomes
We’re wired to care what others think. Sometimes this means we choose looking good over doing good. It’s often easier to signal virtue than to actually be virtuous. But remember: history judges results, not appearances. Outcome over Ego.
Poor Positioning
The best decision-makers rarely find themselves forced into tough spots. You don’t need to be a genius if you can avoid bad situations in the first place. As the saying goes, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”
To learn more about the enemies of decision-making, I recommend reading Clear Thinking.