[The Knowledge Project Ep. #6] Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future

Shane Parrish: Okay. I want to talk about your new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, that you wrote with Dan Gardner who, like me, I think is still based in Ottawa. In the book you say that we’re all forecasters. Can you elaborate on that a little

Philip Tetlock: Well, it’s hard to make any decision in life, whether it’s a consumer decision about whether to buy a car or a house, or whether to marry a particular spouse, a potential spouse, or a candidate to vote for in an election. It’s very hard to make any decision without forming at least implicit expectations about what the consequences of that decision will be. Whenever you’re making a decision, there are implied probabilities built into that. The question becomes are you better off with implicit probabilities that you don’t recognize as probabilities, or explicit ones.