No. 610 – January 5, 2025
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Tiny Thoughts
Two rules to help you be consistent with exercise this year:
1. Show up.
2. You can quit tomorrow.
Repeat.
Stick to the basics:
Be reliable.
Do your job.
Speak for yourself.
Outcome over ego.
Focus on the details.
See challenges as opportunities.
Go to bed smarter than when you woke up.
A timely reminder from Clear Thinking:
“You don’t need to be smarter than others to outperform them if you can out-position them. Anyone looks like a genius when they’re in a good position, and even the smartest person looks like an idiot when they’re in a bad one.”
Insights
Alan Watts on applying day one thinking to yourself:
“You are under no obligation to be the same person you were five minutes ago.”
Charlie Munger on preparation:
“Neither Warren nor I are smart enough to make decisions with no time to think. We make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because we have spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly reading.”
Jim Rohn on failure:
“Failure is rarely the result of some isolated event. Rather, it is a consequence of a long list of accumulated little failures which happen as a result of too little discipline. Failure occurs each time we fail to think … today, act … today, care, strive, climb, learn, or just keep going … today.
If your goal requires that today you write ten letters and you write only three, you are behind by seven letters … today. If you commit yourself to making five phone calls and you make only one, you are behind by four phone calls … today. If your financial plan requires that you save ten dollars and you save none, you are behind ten dollars … today. The danger comes when we look at a day squandered and conclude that no harm has been done. After all, it was just one day. But add up these days to make a year and then add up these years to make a lifetime and perhaps you can now see how repeating today’s small failures can easily turn your life into a major disaster.”
Mental Models
A mental model is a simplified explanation of how something works.
V3 | Systems | Margin of Safety
Margin of safety is a secret weapon. It’s the buffer, the extra capacity, the redundancy that you build into a system to handle unexpected stress. It’s the difference between a bridge that can barely handle the expected load, and one that can hold ten times that load without breaking a sweat.
You can apply a margin of safety to any area of life with risk. The key is always asking yourself: What if I’m wrong? What if things don’t go as planned?
But here’s the rub: margin of safety isn’t free. It means spending more upfront. In the short term, you’ll look overly cautious and leave immediate profits on the table. But in the long run, this apparent overcaution lets you survive when others break – and thrive when others merely survive.
Margin of safety is the unsung hero of long-term success. It’s not flashy. It’s not exciting, but it’s the foundation on which everything else is built. Master it, and you’ll be well on your way to navigating the uncertainties of life with confidence and stability.
— Source: The Great Mental Models v3: Systems and Mathematics
Wisdom is Prevention
I re-read one of my favorite books on Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett: All I Want To Know Is Where I’m Going To Die So I’ll Never Go There: Buffett & Munger – A Study in Simplicity and Uncommon, Common Sense
The main takeaways:
- Wisdom is prevention.
- The fundamental algorithm of life: repeat what works.
- The wise of every generation discover the same truths.
- Avoid distraction.
- Spend time thinking.
- Position yourself for opportunity.
- Invert: Much of success comes from simply avoiding common paths to failure.
- Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
- The weakest link causes the problem.
Thanks for reading,
— Shane
P.S. Stopping the squirrels.