Predicting the Improbable
One natural human bias is that we tend to draw strong conclusions based on few observations. This bias, misconceptions of chance, shows itself in many ways including the gambler and hot hand …
Probability
The Art and Science of High-Stakes Decisions
How can anyone make rational decisions in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often unattainable? Some decisions are more difficult than others. Yet we’re often …
The Famous Game Show Problem
Ahh, the famous game show problem (also known as The Monty Hall Problem). This is a probability puzzle you’ve heard of: Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of …