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Over-weight short term

James March: On Leadership

After reading The Ambiguities of Experience, I set out to read another book by James March: On Leadership. The genius of March takes a while to appreciate. I assure you, however, this …

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Suppressing Volatility: Making the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous

Nassim Taleb’s article, The Black Swan of Cario, (PDF) on suppressing volatility is worth a read. It’s the ultimate example of iatrogenics by the fragilista. Here are my notes. Complex …

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The Art and Science of High-Stakes Decisions

How can anyone make rational decisions in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often unattainable? Some decisions are more difficult than others. Yet we’re often …

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Seth Klarman: The Forgotten Lessons of 2008

In this excerpt from his annual letter, investing great Seth Klarman describes 20 lessons from the financial crisis which, he says, “were either never learned or else were immediately forgotten by …

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Lessons of the Past

The tendency to relate contemporary events to earlier events as a guide to understanding is a powerful one. The difficulty, of course, is in being certain that two situations are truly comparable. …

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