Predicting the Future with Bayes’ Theorem
In episode #37 of The Knowledge Project, we talked with professional poker player Annie Duke about thinking in probabilities, something good poker players do all the time. At the poker table or in …
Nate Silver
Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions
Best known for accurate election predictions, statistician Nate Silver is also the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t. Heather Bell, Managing Editor of …
How Good Gamblers Think
From The Signal And The Noise: Successful gamblers – and successful forecasters of any kind – do not think of the future in terms of no-lose best, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely …
Nate Silver: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Nate Silver elaborates on the difference between risk and uncertainty in The Signal and the Noise: Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is something that you can put a …
What makes predictions succeed or fail?
That’s the ambitious question that Nate Silver tries to answer in The Signal and the Noise. The book appeals to me because it “takes a comprehensive look at prediction across 13 fields, …