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Nate Silver

Predicting the Future with Bayes’ Theorem

In episode #37 of The Knowledge Project, we talked with professional poker player Annie Duke about thinking in probabilities, something good poker players do all the time. At the poker table or in …

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Nate Silver: Confidence Kills Predictions

Best known for accurate election predictions, statistician Nate Silver is also the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t. Heather Bell, Managing Editor of …

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How Good Gamblers Think

From The Signal And The Noise: Successful gamblers – and successful forecasters of any kind – do not think of the future in terms of no-lose best, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely …

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Nate Silver: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

Nate Silver elaborates on the difference between risk and uncertainty in The Signal and the Noise: Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921, is something that you can put a …

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What makes predictions succeed or fail?

That’s the ambitious question that Nate Silver tries to answer in The Signal and the Noise. The book appeals to me because it “takes a comprehensive look at prediction across 13 fields, …

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