Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias
When certain events need to take place to achieve a desired outcome, we’re overly optimistic that those events will happen. Here’s why we should temper those expectations. *** Why are we so optimistic …
Human misjudgment
Human Misjudgment and the American Revolution
We try to look at mental models in history through the lens of people who got it right, but once in a while, it’s beneficial to examine a model through the lens of those who got it wrong. In this …