George Orwell

Complexity Bias: Why We Prefer Complicated to Simple

Complexity bias is a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue credence to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. That’s usually the …

Proximate vs Root Causes: Keep Digging to Find the Answer

“Anything perceived has a cause. All conclusions have premises. All effects have causes. All actions have motives.” — Arthur Schopenhauer *** The Basics One of the first principles we learn as babies …

Can History Tell the Truth?

“I know it is the fashion to say,” George Orwell once wrote, “that most of recorded history is lies anyway. I am willing to believe that history is for the most part inaccurate and …