Mental Model: Misconceptions of Chance
We expect the immediate outcome of events to represent the broader outcomes expected from a large number of trials. We believe that chance events will immediately self-correct and that small sample …
Gambler's Fallacy
Erik Hollnagel: The Search For Causes
A great passage from Erik Hollnagel‘s Barriers And Accident Prevention on the search for causes: Whenever an accident happens there is a natural concern to find out in detail exactly what …
Predicting the Improbable
One natural human bias is that we tend to draw strong conclusions based on few observations. This bias, misconceptions of chance, shows itself in many ways including the gambler and hot hand …