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Gambler's Fallacy

Mental Model: Misconceptions of Chance

We expect the immediate outcome of events to represent the broader outcomes expected from a large number of trials. We believe that chance events will immediately self-correct and that small sample …

Continue readingMental Model: Misconceptions of Chance

Erik Hollnagel: The Search For Causes

A great passage from Erik Hollnagel‘s Barriers And Accident Prevention on the search for causes: Whenever an accident happens there is a natural concern to find out in detail exactly what …

Continue readingErik Hollnagel: The Search For Causes

Predicting the Improbable

One natural human bias is that we tend to draw strong conclusions based on few observations. This bias, misconceptions of chance, shows itself in many ways including the gambler and hot hand …

Continue readingPredicting the Improbable

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