Farnam Street
Survivorship bias refers to the idea that we get a false representation of reality when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who live to tell their story. Taking a look at how we …
We’re often advised to excel at one thing. But as the future gets harder to predict, preserving optionality allows us to pivot when the road ahead crumbles. *** How do we prepare for a world that …
The best colloquial definition of risk may be the following: “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.” We found it through the inimitable Howard Marks, but it’s a quote …
We all try to avoid uncertainty, even if it means being wrong. We take comfort in certainty, and we demand it of others, even when we know it’s impossible. Gerd Gigerenzer argues in Risk Savvy: …
“The indeterminate future is somehow one in which probability and statistics are the dominant modalities for making sense of the world.” *** Decisions, where outcomes (and therefore …
We see what’s visible and available. Often this is nothing more than randomness and yet we wrap a narrative around it. The trader who is rich must know what he is doing. A good outcome means we …
If you’re a knowledge worker you make decisions every day. In fact, whether you realize it or not, decisions are your job. Decisions are how you make a living. Of course, not every decision is …
Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder is having a profound impact on how I see the world. In this adapted piece from Antifragile, which appeared in the Wall Street …
Gary Klein‘s book Streetlights and Shadows looks at commonly held maxims for decision-making and overturns them, revealing cases where these practices break down. The book is an impressive look …