Tag: Status Quo Bias

Future Babble: Why expert predictions fail and why we believe them anyway

Future Babble has come out to mixed reviews. I think the book would interest anyone seeking wisdom.

Here are some of my notes:

First a little background: Predictions fail because the world is too complicated to be predicted with accuracy and we’re wired to avoid uncertainty. However, we shouldn’t blindly believe experts. The world is divided into two: foxes and hedgehogs. The fox knows many things whereas the hedgehog knows one big thing. Foxes beat hedgehogs when it comes to making predictions.

  • What we should ask is, in a non-linear world, why would we think oil prices can be predicted. Practically since the dawn of the oil industry in the nineteenth century, experts have been forecasting the price of oil. They’ve been wrong ever since. And yet this dismal record hasn’t caused us to give up on the enterprise of forecasting oil prices. 
  • One of psychology’s fundamental insights, wrote psychologist Daniel Gilbert, is that judgements are generally the products of non-conscious systems that operate quickly, on the basis scant evidence, and in a routine manner, and then pass their hurried approximations to consciousness, which slowly and deliberately adjust them. … (one consequence of this is that) Appearance equals reality. In the ancient environment in which our brains evolved, that as a good rule, which is why it became hard-wired into the brain and remains there to this day. (an example of this) as psychologists have shown, people often stereotype “baby-faced” adults as innocent, helpless, and needy.
  • We have a hard time with randomness. If we try, we can understand it intellectually, but as countless experiments have shown, we don’t get it intuitively. This is why someone who plunks one coin after another into a slot machine without winning will have a strong and growing sense—the gambler’s fallacy—that a jackpot is “due,” even though every result is random and therefore unconnected to what came before. … and people believe that a sequence of random coin tosses that goes “THTHHT” is far more likely than the sequence “THTHTH” even though they are equally likely.
  • People are particularly disinclined to see randomness as the explanation for an outcome when their own actions are involved. Gamblers rolling dice tend to concentrate and throw harder for higher numbers, softer for lower. Psychologists call this the “illusion of control.” … they also found the illusion is stronger when it involves prediction. In a sense, the “illusion of control” should be renamed the “illusion of prediction.”
  • Overconfidence is a universal human trait closely related to an equally widespread phenomenon known as “optimism bias.” Ask smokers about the risk of getting lung cancer from smoking and they’ll say it’s high. But their risk? Not so high. … The evolutionary advantage of this bias is obvious: It encourages people to take action and makes them more resilient in the face of setbacks.
  • … How could so many experts have been so wrong? … A crucial component of the answer lies in psychology. For all the statistics and reasoning involved, the experts derived their judgements, to one degree or another, from what they felt to be true. And in doing so they were fooled by a common bias. … This tendency to take current trends and project them into the future is the starting point of most attempts to predict. Very often. it’s also the end point. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, tomorrow typically is like today. Current trends do tend to continue. But not always. Change happens. And the further we look into the future, the more opportunity there is for current rends to be modified, bent, or reversed. Predicting the future by projecting the present is like driving with no hands. It works while you are on a long stretch of straight road but even a gentle curve is trouble, and a sharp turn always ends in a flaming wreck.
  • When people attempt to judge how common something is—or how likely it is to happen in the future—they attempt to think of an example of that thing. If an example is recalled easily, it must be common. If it’s harder to recall, it must be less common. … Again, this is not a conscious calculation. The “availability heuristic” is a tool of the unconscious mind.
  • “deviating too far from consensus leaves one feeling potentially ostracized from the group, with the risk that one may be terminated.” (Robert Shiller) … It’s tempting to think that only ordinary people are vulnerable to conformity, that esteemed experts could not be so easily swayed. Tempting, but wrong. As Shiller demonstrated, “groupthink” is very much a disease that can strike experts. In fact, psychologist Irving Janis coined the term “groupthink” to describe expert behavior. In his 1972 classic, Victims of Groupthink, Janis investigated four high-level disasters: the defence of Pearl Harbour, the Bay of Pigs invasion, and escalation of the wars in Korea and Vietnam and demonstrated that conformity among highly educated, skilled, and successful people working in their fields of expertise was a root cause in each case.
  • (On corporate use of scenario planning)… Scenarios are not predictions, emphasizes Peter Schwartz, the guru of scenario planning. “They are tools for testing choices.” The idea is to have a clever person dream up a number of very different futures, usually three to four. … Managers then consider the implications of each, forcing them out of the rut of the status quo, and thinking about what they would do if confronted with real change. The ultimate goal is to make decisions that would stand up well in a wide variety of contexts. No one denies there maybe some value in such exercises. But how much value? The consultants who offer scenario planning services are understandably bullish, but ask them for evidence and they typically point to examples of scenarios that accurately foreshadowed the future. That is silly, frankly. For one thing, it contradicts their claim that scenarios are not predictions and al the misses would have to be considered, and the misses vastly outnumber the hits. … Consultants also cite the enormous popularity of scenario planning as proof of its enormous value… Lack of evidence aside, there are more disturbing reasons to be wary of scenarios. Remember that what drives the availably heuristic is not how many examples the mind can recall but how easily they are recalled. … and what are scenarios? Vivid, colourful, dramatic stories. Nothing could be easier to remember or recall. And so being exposed to a dramatic scenario about (whatever)… will make the depicted events feel much more likely to happen.
  • (on not having control) At its core, torture is a process of psychological destruction. and that process almost always begins with the torturer explicitly telling the victim he his powerless. “I decide when you can eat and sleep. I decide when you suffer, how you suffer, if it will end. I decide if you live or die.” …Knowing what will happen in the future is a form of control, even if we cannot change what will happen. …Uncertainty is potent… people who experienced the mild-but-unpredictable shocks experienced much more fear than those who got the strong-but-predictable shocks.
  • Our profound aversion to uncertainty helps explain what would otherwise be a riddle: Why do people pay so much attention to dark and scary predictions? Why do gloomy forecasts so often outnumber optimistic predictions, take up more media space, and sell more books? Part of this predilection for gloom is simply an outgrowth of what is sometimes called negativity bias: our attention is drawn more swiftly by bad news or images, and we are more likely to remember them than cheery information….People who’s brains gave priority to bad news were much less likely to be eaten by lions or die some other pleasant death. … (negative) predictions are supported by our intuitive pessimism, so they feel right to us. And that conclusion is bolstered by our attraction to certainty. As strange as it sounds, we want to believe the expert predicting a dark future is less tormenting then suspecting it. Certainty is always preferable to uncertainty, even when what’s certain is disaster.
  • Researchers have also shown that financial advisors who express considerable confidence in their stock forecasts are more trusted than those who are less confident, even when their objective records are the same. … This “confidence heuristic” like the availability heuristics, isn’t necessarily a conscious decision path. We may not actually say to ourselves “she’s so sure of herself she must be right”…
  • (on our love for stories) Confirmation bias also plays a critical role for the very simple reason that none of us is a blank slate. Every human brain is a vast warehouse of beliefs and assumptions about the world and how it works. Psychologists call these “schemas.” We love stories that fit our schemas; they’re the cognitive equivalent of beautiful music. But a story that doesn’t fit – a story that contradicts basic beliefs – is dissonant.
  • … What makes this mass delusion possible is the different emphasis we put on predictions that hit and those that miss. We ignore misses, even when they lie scattered by the dozen at our feet; we celebrate hits, even when we have to hunt for them and pretend there was more to them that luck.
  • By giving us the sense that we should have predicted what is now the present, or even that we actually did predict it when we did not, it strong suggests that we can predict the future. This is an illusion, and yet it seems only logical – which makes it a particularly persuasive illusion.

If you like the notes you should buy Future Babble. Like the book summaries? Check out my notes from Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, The Ambiguities of Experience, On Leadership.

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The Art and Science of High-Stakes Decisions

How can anyone make rational decisions in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often unattainable?

Some decisions are more difficult than others and yet we often make these decisions in the same way easy decisions are made, on autopilot.

We have difficulty contemplating and taking protective actions towards low probability, high stakes threats. It almost seems perverse when you consider we are least prepared to make the decisions that matter most.

Sure we can pick between the store brand of peanut butter and the Kraft label and we can no doubt surf the internet with relative ease, yet life seems to offer few opportunities to prepare for decisions where the consequences of a poor decision are catastrophic. If we pick the wrong type of peanut butter, we are generally not penalized too harshly. If we fail to purchase flood insurance, on the other hand, we can be financially and emotionally wiped out.

Shortly after the planes crashed into the towers in Manhattan some well-known academics got together to discuss1 how skilled people were at making choices involving low and ambiguous probability of a high-stakes loss

High-stakes decisions involve two distinctive properties: 1) existence of a possible large loss (financial or emotional) and 2) the costs to reverse decisions once made are high. More importantly, these professors wanted to determine if prescriptive guidelines for improving decision-making process could be created in an effort to help make better decisions.

Whether we’re buying something at the grocery store or making a decision to purchase earthquake insurance, we operate in the same way. The presence of potentially catastrophic costs of errors does little to reduce our reliance on heuristics (or rules of thumb). Such heuristics serve us well on a daily basis. For simple decisions, not only are heuristics generally right but the costs of errors are small, such as being caught without an umbrella or regretting not picking up the Kraft peanut butter after discovering the store band doesn’t taste as you remember. However, in high-stakes decisions, heuristics can often be a poor method of forecasting.

In order to make better high-stakes decisions, we need a better understanding of why we generally make poor decisions.

Here are several causes.

Poor understanding of probability.
Several studies show that people either utilize probability information insufficiently when it is made available to them or ignore it all together. In one study, 78% of subjects failed to seek out probability information when evaluating between several risky managerial decisions.

In the context of high-stakes decisions, the probability of an event causing loss may seem sufficiently low that organizations and individuals consider them not worth worry about. In doing so, they effectively treat the probability of something as zero or close to it.

An excessive focus on short time horizons.
Many high-stakes decisions are not obvious to the decision-maker. In part, this is because people tend to focus on the immediate consequences and not the long-term consequences.

A CEO near retirement has incentives to skimp on insurance to report slightly higher profits before leaving (shareholders are unaware of the increased risk and appreciate the increased profits). Governments tend to under-invest in less visible things like infrastructure because they have short election cycles. The long-term consequences of short-term thinking can be disastrous.

The focus on short-term decision making is one of the most widely-documented failings of human decision making. People have difficulty considering the future consequences of current actions over long periods of time. Garrett Hardin, the author of Filters against Folly, suggests we look at things through three filters (literacy, numeracy, and ecolacy). In ecolacy, the key question is “and then what?” And then what helps us avoid a focus solely on the short-term.

Excessive attention to what’s available
Decisions requiring difficult trade-offs between attributes or entailing ambiguity as to what a right answer looks like often leads people to resolve choices by focusing on the information most easily brought to mind. Sometimes things can be difficult to bring to mind.

Constant exposure to low-risk events without realization leads to us being less concerned than we probably would warrant (it makes these events less available) and “proves” our past decisions to ignore low-risk events were right.

People refuse to buy flood insurance even when it is heavily subsidized and priced far below an actuarially fair value. Kunreuther et. al. (1993) suggests underreaction to threats of flooding may arise from “the inability of individuals to conceptualize floods that have never occurred… Men on flood plains appear to be very much prisoners of their experience… Recently experienced floods appear to set an upward bound to the size of loss with which managers believe they ought to be concerned.”Paradoxically, we feel more secure even as the “risk” may have increased.

Distortions under stress
Most high-stakes decisions will be made under perceived (or real) stress. A large number of empirical studies find that stress focuses decision-makers on a selective set of cues when evaluating options and leads to greater reliance on simplifying heuristics. When we’re stressed, we’re less likely to think things through.

Over-reliance on social norms
Most individuals have little experience with high-stakes decisions and are highly uncertain about how to resolve them (procedural uncertainty). In such cases—and combined with stress—the natural course of action is to mimic the behavior of others or follow established social norms. This is based on the psychological desire to fail conventionally.

The tendency to prefer the status-quo
What happens when people are presented with difficult choices and no obvious right answer? We tend to prefer making no decision at all, we choose the norm.

In high-stakes decisions many options are better than the status-quo and we must make trade-offs. Yet, when faced with decisions that involve life-and-death trade-offs, people frequently remark “I’d rather not think about it.”

Failures to learn
Although individuals and organizations are eager to derive intelligence from experience, the inferences stemming from that eagerness are often misguided. The problems lie partly in errors in how people think, but even more so in properties of experience that confound learning from it. Experience may possibly be the best teacher, but it is not a particularly good teacher.

As an illustration, one study finds that participants in an earthquake simulation tended to over-invest in mitigation that was normatively ineffective but under-invest when it is normatively effective. The reason was a misinterpretation of feedback; when mitigation was ineffective, respondents attributed the persistence of damage to the fact that they had not invested enough. by contract, when it was effective, they attributed the absence of damage to a belief that earthquakes posted limited damage risk.

Gresham’s Law of Decision making
Over time, bad decisions will tend to drive out good decisions in an organization.

Improving
What can you do to improve your decision-making?

A few things: 1) learn more about judgment and decision making; 2) encourage decision makers to see events through alternative frames, such as gains versus losses and changes in the status-quo; 3) adjust the time frame of decisions—while the probability of an earthquake at your plant may be 1/100 in any given year, the probability over the 25 year life of the plant will be 1/5; and 4) read Farnam Street!

Footnotes
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    http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/Kahn/High%20Stakes%20Decision%20Making.pdf

Scientifically Proven Ways to Increase Tips in the Service Industry

Tipping is a $40 billion dollar industry in the United States. Yet from the traditional economic perspective, which sees us as rational agents operating in our own interest, tipping waiters, barbers, taxi drivers and other service workers is crazy.

Many food servers depend on tips to make their living. Understanding the variables that affect tipping behavior can make a huge difference on income. Of course, a lot of the variables that influence tipping behavior are outside the servers’s control. For example, customers tend to leave larger tips when the weather is pleasant, when there is desirable background music, and when the restaurant is elegant or in an urban area. Food quality has a large impact. Research also suggests that tipping behavior is affected by customers’ characteristics, including size of the dining party, amount of alcohol consumed, customers’ gender and ethnic background, and method of payment.

However, research also indicates that servers can control some variables that influence tipping behavior.

If you’re a food server try—and if you’re a customer watch out for—the following:

Have your restaurant prime the customer with examples of what a tip would be at 20%
This study examined the role of gratuity guidelines on tipping behavior in restaurants. When diners were finished with their meals, they were given checks that either did or did not include calculated examples informing them what various percentages of their bill would amount to. Results indicated that parties who received the gratuity examples left significantly higher tips than did those receiving no examples. These results and their implications are discussed.

Introduce yourself by name
…wait staff who introduced themselves by name received an average tip of $5.44, or 23 percent of the total bill, and those who used no name were tipped on average about $3.49, or 15 percent of the total bill.

Squat when you first get to the table
Walters should squat down next to the table upon their first trip to the station, Lynn recommended, based on his study at an unnamed casual Mexican restaurant in Houston. Those who squatted received an average tip that was 20 percent higher — $6.40 as compared with $5.18 — than those who stood on their initial visit to the station.

Smile
Servers should give their customers a large smile — with mouth open and teeth showing — while they work.

Approach The Table Often
Walt staff should visit their tables more often, Lynn suggested as another technique, based on a study conducted in the 1970s at a Chicago steak house. Those who approached their tables — just to check up on the customers and not to deliver anything — two times or more received average tips that were 15.6 percent of the total bill, while those who approached the table only to deliver something or take something away received tips that were on average 13.8 percent of the total bill.

Touch your customers
He recommend they touch them lightly on their shoulders when delivering the bill or when returning with change or a credit card. His study for the technique was conducted at a Bennigan’s in Houston. Those who touched their customers for an average of two to four seconds received an average tip of 18 percent, or $3.20, of the total bill, and those who didn’t received a 12-percent average tip, or $2.52.

Give your customers something extra, like a mint
Another controversial technique Lynn recommended is for wait staff to give their customers after-dinner mints, based on his study at a Philadelphia restaurant. Servers who left their customers mints received tips that were on average about 28 percent, or $5.98, of the total bill, and those who left no mints received average tips of 19 percent, or $4.64, of the total bill.

“The technique didn’t work at steak houses with a [per-person] check average over $30,” Lynn said. He added that leaving mints for customers at upscale restaurants seems to have no impact on tips. “But at casual restaurants, it does increase tips,” he insisted. “It works because customers got something free, so they want to repay their servers.”

Compliment your customers
The present study examined the role of ingratiation on tipping behavior in restau- rants. In the study, 2 female food servers waited on 94 couples eating dinner, and either complimented or did not compliment the couples on their dinner selections. Results indicated that food servers received significantly higher tips when complimenting their customers than when not complimenting them. These results and their implications are discussed.

Other ideas? Write “thank-you” or simply draw a smily-face on the bill (to create a likeable impression); Print a picture of someone smiling on the bill, or the American Flag (something most people would associate with happiness); Make paying by Visa the default; If you’re a guy give the bill to the woman and if you’re a woman give the bill a guy; and Tell customers the weather is supposed to be nice tomorrow (take away a subconscious worry).

If you’re interested in learning more about gratuity’s try reading Keep the Change: A Clueless Tipper’s Quest to Become the Guru of the Gratuity. The best book out there on working in a restaurant is Kitchen Confidential.

Sources
– Ingratiation and Gratuity: The Effect of Complimenting Customers on Tipping Behavior in Restaurants
– Tip gratuity scale in server’s favor with simple techniques
– http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/0/7/3/0/p307300_index.html

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