Farnam Street
Mastering the best of what other people have already figured out
“What do you want to be when you grow up?” Do you ever ask kids this question? Did adults ask you this when you were a kid? Even if you managed to escape this question until high school, then by the …
You can use a big idea without a physics-like need for exact precision. The key to remember is moving closer to reality by updating. Consider this excerpt from Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in …
The Knowledge Project interview with Philip Tetlock deconstructs our ability to make accurate predictions into specific components. He learned through his work on The Good Judgment Project. In …
Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment, co-authors an interesting article in foreign policy. Academic research suggests that predicting events five years into the future is so difficult …