Search Results for: taleb

Taleb: The Fooled by Randomness Effect and the Internet Diet?

March 28, 2010

In this brief article Nassim Taleb (of Black Swan fame) touches on information, complexity, the randomness effect, over-confidence, and signal and noise. THE DEGRADATION OF PREDICTABILITY — AND KNOWLEDGE I used to think that the problem of information is that it turns homo sapiens into fools — we gain disproportionately in confidence, particularly in domains […]

Taleb: The Risk Externalities of Too Big to Fail

December 17, 2009

Too Big to Fail” is a dilemma that has plagued economists, policy makers and the public at large. In Nassim Taleb’s lastest paper (with co-author Charles S. Tapiero) he takes a look. Abstract This paper examines the risk externalities stemming from the size of institutions. Assuming (conservatively) that a firm risk exposure is limited to […]

The Best of Farnam Street 2018

December 30, 2018

We read for the same reasons we have conversations — to enrich our lives. Reading helps us to think, feel, and reflect — not only upon ourselves and others but upon our ideas, and our relationship with the world. Reading deepens our understanding and helps us live consciously. Of the 46 articles we published on FS this […]

Winner Takes it All: How Markets Favor the Few at the Expense of the Many

September 24, 2018

Markets tend to favor unequal distributions of market share and profits, with a few leaders emerging in any industry. Winner-take-all markets are hard to disrupt and suppress the entry of new players by locking in market share for leading players. *** In almost any market, crowds of competitors fight for business within their niche. But […]


September 02, 2018

2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 *** December The Power Broker Robert Caro’s masterpiece on New York political power between the 1920s and the 1960s, focuses on Robert Moses — the creator of institutions like the Parks Commission and the Bridge, Port, and Tunnel Authorities. Sound mundane? You’ll have to read the […]

The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes

May 14, 2018

Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic […]